Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
